FLEURY-MEROGIS (91) 20.10.2011

On 20 October 2011 at about 21:10, an amateur astronomer saw a bright point move slowly west to east. GEIPAN rates strangeness as low and evidential support as good. The particularly bright light rose higher in the sky and disappeared within seconds, matching the ISS entering Earth’s shadow. However, the simulator predicted disappearance at 21:03 rather than 21:10, and maximum elevation 50° rather than the reported 60–70°. ISS orbital data varied markedly from day to day then, probably because of manoeuvres, making an exact orbital prediction difficult. The case is classified B: probable ISS observation.