SOURCIEUX-LES-MINES (69) 11.11.2020

On 11 November 2020, sometime between 22:30 and 23:30, a witness watched a fairly bright orange point for about 15 minutes. He described it as bright as Venus or slightly brighter, due south or 5–10° beyond south, at about 60° elevation. He noticed no brightness change but thought it moved slightly left and right, forward and back, without an overall direction, remaining approximately in place. After 15 minutes, thin high clouds obscured the stars but not this bright point. He went indoors and returned about 30 minutes later; it remained visible but seemed much more stationary. He went inside again and came out 1 hour later, when it had disappeared. He could not locate it elsewhere, and described the sky as starry and cloudless again. Only 1 account was collected. The witness did not specify the start and end times of the 2 observations during the night. The analysis describes a discontinuous total of 20 minutes, distinct from the initial approximately 15-minute episode. Its duration and description suggest an astronomical misidentification with cloud effects. Stellarium places Mars at azimuth 187° at 22:30, matching south or south plus 5–10°, and elevation 49°. The witness estimated 60°, but GEIPAN notes that elevation estimates are often mistaken. Mars closely matches many features and the viewing direction. Weather records show very cloudy conditions, 6/8 oktas, between 22:00 and 23:00 on 11 November, and complete cover, 8/8 oktas, between 00:00 and 01:00 on 12 November (see the cloud-cover document). The witness reasoned that the point could not be a star because high clouds hid other stars, placing it below them. GEIPAN instead considers Mars quite plausible given cloud passages along the sightline, the impossibility of judging distance at night, and the unique orange point in the indicated direction. GEIPAN attributes the perceived slight movements to 2 familiar effects: the autokinetic effect producing apparent angular motion, and atmosphere-induced brightness fluctuations interpreted as motion towards or away from the witness. This latter explanation is offered despite the initial account’s statement that no brightness variation was noticed. The bright moving orange point is well explained in GEIPAN’s assessment, leaving little residual strangeness. Evidential strength is moderate because the timing is imprecise and the reported cloudless, starry sky conflicts with weather records of 6/8 cloud at the beginning and 8/8 at the end. GEIPAN classifies the case A: very probable misidentification of Mars.